Extreme storms forecast for 2080 are already there in 2022

Extreme storms forecast for 2080 are already there in 2022

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Swampscott, United States

ENVIRONMENT – Extreme storms are already here. A new study published in the scientific journal on May 26 Nature Climate Change and directed by Dr. Rei Chemke of theWeizmann Institute of Sciencereveals a significant intensification of winter storms (characterized by snowfall, ice, or sleet) in the southern hemisphere. These results call into question the ability of climate models to accurately predict future impacts anthropogenic emissions.

According to the models used in the previous ones Giec reportscarbon emissions would only significantly worsen winter storms by the end of the century. Yet en comparing these models At current storm observations, researchers have realized that the current winter storms have already reached the levels forecast for 2080.

Faced with this finding, scientists have sought to understand the reason for the “growth” of storms in recent decades: “This intensification is due to changes in the structure of the” jet stream “, these are strong winds circulating from west to east in the upper troposphere (the layer of the atmosphere between the surface of the globe and the stratosphere ed.), which are partly responsible for the formation of storms, ”said Rei Chemke. The HuffPost.

Climate deregulation of the poles

Scientists have focused exclusively on storms in the southern hemisphere because intensification has so far been stronger than in the north, but such levels could be seen on the other side of the globe in the coming years. .

A major winter storm, Izzyhit the eastern United States last January causing power outages for more than 230,000 people as well as disruption to road and air transportation.

In addition to these population impacts, winter storms have a climate impact. Of course, they do not change the climate on their own. “However, the long-term effect of winter storms becomes evident when evaluating the cumulative data collected over long periods of time,” Rei Chemke was quoted as saying by the Israeli daily The Times of Israel.

Storms effectively affect the transfer of heat and moisture, rainfall, and wind currents with major impacts on different climates on Earth. Les poles are particularly vulnerable to this disorder. Winter storms can somehow regulate the heat at both ends of the earth, “without their contribution, average pole temperatures would be about 30 ° C lower,” Rei Chemke said.

Future changes difficult to assess

The early arrival of storms of such power worries scientists and prompts them to question climate forecasting methods. “Current climate models severely underestimate the intensification of mid-latitude storm trajectories over the past few decades,” they warn.

Yet the programs scientists use to predict our future climate are computer models that combine the myriad physical, chemical, and biological phenomena that together make up our planet’s climate. So how did the modelers fail to anticipate this phenomenon?

At issue are biases in the observation of atmospheric circulation. In other words, forecasters have failed to properly assess the properties of the air masses responsible for storms. However, researchers point out that climate models remain the best tool available today for studying our climate system. However, they believe that these observations need to be improved in order to better understand the impacts of human activity on climate extremes.

Also worth seeing The HuffPost: Global warming: at the poles, the other catastrophe that goes unnoticed

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